Methodology
Every company in the universe is scored on three (or four) inputs. The thesis: private edtech companies that raised under $100M and whose last round is furthest in the past are the most interesting acquisition candidates. Longer capital drought = shorter runway = more openness to M&A. Companies split across four capital bands — <$10M, $10M–$30M, $30M–$50M, and $50M–$100M.
1 · Months since last funding
For each company we compute the calendar months between the last announced round and July 20, 2026.
2 · Timing Score (0–100)
Peaks in the 18–36 month sweet spot after the last round — runway is genuinely thinning and boards are receptive, but the team and product haven’t gone stale. Ramps up linearly from 0→18 months, plateaus at 100 through 18–36 months, then decays linearly over the next 36 months toward 0 as the company drifts into distressed / dormant territory.
timing = months < 18 → months/18 · 100 timing = 18 ≤ months ≤ 36 → 100 timing = months > 36 → max(0, 100 − (months − 36)/36 · 100)
3 · Acquisition Attractiveness Score
Weighted composite. Default weighting:
- 60% Staleness Score
- 25% Capital-cheapness: 1 − (total raised / $100M), floored at 0, × 100
- 15% Category demand heat
score = 0.60·staleness + 0.25·capital_cheap + 0.15·category_demand
Mature-business adjustment. For companies flagged as mature (large user bases / meaningful revenue — Quizlet, ClassDojo, Panorama), staleness weight drops from 60% → 40% and the recovered 20% flows into a new Strategic Value component (85 for flagged companies, 50 otherwise).
score_mature = 0.40·staleness + 0.25·capital_cheap + 0.15·category_demand + 0.20·strategic_value
4 · Tiers
- Prime Target — score ≥ 55 (the sweet-spot funding band is now baked into the score via a fit multiplier, so highest score = best fit)
- Watch List — 40–54
- Recently Funded — < 40
Acquirer matching
For each acquirer we combine attractiveness, category fit, geographic fit, and whether the company itself named this acquirer as a likely buyer. The shortlist surfaces the top 12 by combined signal.
Note on the $30M–$50M and $50M–$100M bands
The $30M–$50M band represents larger, later-stage targets. These typically command higher prices and may have more runway, so time-since-funding is a weaker distress signal here — but they are also more strategically meaningful acquisitions. EDURINO's total is an estimate from public reporting.
For the $50M–$100M band, time-since-funding is an ambiguous signal: companies like Quizlet and ClassDojo haven't raised in 5+ years largely because strong cash generation made new capital unnecessary. For these, the map treats staleness as evidence of acquisition readiness (clean cap table aging, investor liquidity pressure after 6–10 year hold periods) rather than distress. Older investors seeking exits can make even healthy companies receptive to M&A. Figures for Swing Education are estimates from public reporting.